NEBA as a company are not panicking at all. Turmoil is always around and this war is no different as far as the markets are concerned.
There is always a dip when a crisis breaks out because Investment Professionals know that most people are emotional and there will be a selloff from those who ‘panic’. The smart Fund Managers take advantage of this as shown in the graphs below which show a rebound after only a short time during certain global conflicts like the attack on Pearl Harbor and the Vietnam War etc…
The lesson of most major conflicts is that they typically do not have a long-lasting impact on asset performance which was also true for the recent pandemic.
Don’t try to sell out your investments into cash or sell Russian positions. The Fund Managers will do that for you and you have probably already missed the dip.
Also, I would highly recommend that you don’t try to guess the markets e.g. buy oil (especially in a Structured Note) as the growth could be short term and it is not really our job to ‘Play the Markets’. Please leave major investment decisions to the full time professionals who watch these things constantly.
Scenarios on Ukraine/Russia Conflict – Keep Calm And Stay Invested-
- I expect the war in Ukraine to stay within its borders, and therefore to have little impact on global growth
- Markets will be volatile, but we recommend allocators stay invested – with some moderate hedges in place.
- The Fed won’t tighten as fast as markets expect, and US long rates will not rise much higher this year.
- Russia’s aims are limited to 1) Regime change in Kyiv 2) Ukraine to remain NATO Neutral 3) Full control over Crimea
- The risk of the conflict spreading beyond Ukraine’s borders is low, limited perhaps to cyberattacks on Western targets
- A Russian attack on a NATO member, such as Poland or one of the Baltic states, is extraordinarily unlikely – though Moldova and Georgia (not NATO members) might be more vulnerable at some point in the future.
- There is little chance that the Ukraine war will significantly dent global growth
*Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
#IstandwithUkraine
